Politics
Sage graphs predict how Indian variant could trigger biggest wave yet – even WITH vaccines
THE INDIAN variant could trigger the biggest Covid wave of hospitalisations seen yet, modelling has warned.
Even with vaccines, a variant that is deemed more transmissible risks overwhelming the NHS.
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Experts said the forecasts should be enough evidence that lockdown lifting should be delayed.
Documents detailing the severity of such a wave were given to Sage – the scientific group that advises the Government – and considered on May 5.
University of Warwick said in its paper: “England remains extremely vulnerable to novel variants with either higher transmission or that can partially escape existing immunity.
“A variant that is 30-40 per cent more transmissible than B.1.1.7 [Kent] is projected to generate more total hospital admissions than the first wave.”
The Indian variant, detected over 1,313 times in the UK, is said to be “at least” as transmissible as the Kent strain.
But there is reason to believe that it is even more infectious, possibly by up to 60 per cent according to one study.
If this is the case, Warwick scientists say that going ahead with the next step of easing restrictions on May 17 could cause daily hospital admissions to reach around 5,500 at worst.
This compares with 3,000 at the peak of the first wave (April 2020), and 4,000 in the second (January 2021).
If the fourth step of the lockdown is allowed to go ahead, on June 21, the situation worsens further.
Daily hospitalisations could reach 10,000 if the variant is 50 per cent more transmissible than the Kent version.
The team predicted the third wave peak could occur at the end of July if a variant “invaded the UK” at very low levels in mid-March.
The Indian variant was first detected on April 10.
The Indian variant does not, at this stage, appear able to dodge immunity from vaccines to a significant level.
However there are no real-life studies to prove this yet.
The Warwick paper said: “Variants that escape immunity (either from infection or vaccination) could generate outbreaks larger than the second wave unless immunity confers a significant degree of protection against severe disease.”
Sage experts said last week that an inevitable third wave would not overwhelm the NHS.
But it had not accounted for a new variant in its central predictions.
The Indian variant, B.1.617.2, has grown substantially within just a few weeks, casting doubt on the UK’s positive roadmap out of lockdown.
Delay lockdown
Prof Christina Pagel, a mathematician and professor of operational research at University College London, said she would delay lockdown in light of the evidence.
She explained to Sky News: “This week the Sage modelling sub group released their latest models, and they showed as long as the Kent strain remains dominant, we should be ok to open up on Monday…
“But there’s additional modelling done by the Warwick group on Sage, where they showed if there is a new variety which is more transmissible than Kent, you could get a really bad surge that leads to hospitals as overwhelmed as they were in winter.
“And if there’s also an element of vaccine escape, it gets even worse. And we just don’t know yet.”
Why would a new variant cause a wave, even with vaccines?
A new variant that is highly transmissible will easily spread among an unvaccinated population that have the freedom to meet with no restrictions.
At the same time, there will be some people in the community who are vaccinated but still vulnerable.
The vaccines do not prevent all infection. And they are not 100 per cent effective at preventing severe disease and death.
There will also be people who could not take the vaccine due to medical reasons.
And some would have refused the jab for personal reasons, with low uptake among people in ethnic minority communities.
Together, these people make up a considerable fraction of the population, experts say.
A variant which can dodge immunity from vaccines poses another threat.
Because the jabs were created to fight the original virus strain, they may not work as well against new strains which have “immunity escaping” features.
Government ministers say that in order for lockdown to be safely lifted, new variants must be under control.
Prof Pagel said: “The fourth test, which says if there is a new variant which changes the risk assessment, hasn’t been met. Because there is a new variant, it is growing really rapidly, we are not quite sure we have it under control.
“So I think that changes the risk assessment for opening further. I would personally delay it all together.”
Prof Pagel said although it was difficult, waiting a few more weeks before reopening would prevent the need for another nationwide lockdown in the future.
Boris Johnson has said the “anxious” Government is “ruling nothing out” in tackling the Indian variant.
But he said there is “nothing that dissuades me” from easing England’s lockdown on Monday, or the further steps towards normality on June 21.
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Prof Paul Hunter, of University of East Anglia, suggested it was a waiting game to see if hospitalisations rise due to the new variant.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he said: “At the moment the hospitalisation rate doesn’t seem to be increasing yet, although if this becomes much more common we’ll almost certainly see some increase, so I think it’s certainly a concern.”
And if cases do rise in the vulnerable, putting pressure on the NHS, he said the June 21 relaxation “would be in doubt”.
