Asteroid with ‘riskiest trajectory in 10 years’ tracked to see if it’ll hit Earth – and the results are in

AN ASTEROID that was on course to hit Earth next year has now been stripped of its high-risk status.

Scientists at the European Space Agency (ESA) say an asteroid designated “2022 AE1” that was on track to collide with our planet on July 4, 2023, is no longer a threat, according to a new report by Phys.org.

ESA/NEOCCAsteroid 2022 AE1 was discovered on January 6, 2022[/caption]

“In January this year, we became aware of an asteroid with the highest ranking on the Palermo scale that we’ve seen in more than a decade, reaching -1.5,” said Marco Micheli, an astronomer at ESA’s NEOCC, told Phys.org.

“In my almost ten years at ESA, I’ve never seen such a risky object. It was a thrill to track 2022 AE1 and refine its trajectory until we had enough data to say for certain, this asteroid will not strike,” Micheli added.

‘2022 AE1’ rated a -1.5 on the Palermo scale

The asteroid was originally discovered on January 6, 2022, and caused a bit of a scare after being classified as a -1.5 on the Palermo scale.

The Palermo scale is designed to assess the risk of near-Earth objects (NEOs) by looking at the potential date of impact, the kinetic energy of the strike, and impact probability.

Scale values less than -2 indicate situations for which there are no likely consequences; scale values between -2 and 0 reflect scenarios that require careful monitoring.

“I was surprised at first when I heard about the -1.50 rated asteroid, as it is very rare to have such a high Palermo scale. Yet, I wasn’t too concerned as we get notifications like this—though at a lower level—a few times per year,” Luca Conversi, Manager of the NEOCC, said.

Furthermore, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena California temporarily placed the asteroid in level 1 on the Torino scale but then moved it back down to zero.

The Torino scale is intended to rank an asteroid’s potential for collision with Earth – an asteroid at level 0 indicates no impact, while level 10 indicates a definite collision.

No longer a risk

That first week after asteroid 2022 AE1’s discovery, the ESA along with NASA JPL monitored the rock using the Calar Alto Shmidt telescope located in Spain and confirmed its growing risk of impact.

However, the scientists’ observation quickly became obscured by the moon’s luminosity from January 12-19, 2022.

On top of this, the asteroid was moving further away in its current orbit and becoming less visible.

As soon as the moon was dim enough, though, the astronomers looked at the asteroid once more and determined its trajectory had changed and it was no longer a threat.

“The data was clear, confirmed the next morning by our counterparts at NASA—asteroid 2022 AE1 poses no impact risk,” Laura Faggioli, near-Earth object dynamicist in the NEOCC said.

What if

If Asteroid 2022 AE1 was still on a trajectory to collide with Earth in 2023, the results would not be good.

Due to the short time frame of just 17 months, scientists would not have enough time to diverge the rock off its path and therefore prevent a collision.

The rock, which is measured at 230 feet (70 m) in diameter, is also large enough that it would have caused real damage to whichever local area it struck.

Thankfully, it will not be colliding with Earth.

Getty ImagesThe asteroid was initially placed at a level 1 on the Torino scale but is now back down to zero.[/caption]

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