UFC 258: Usman vs Burns- Kelvin Gastelum vs Ian Heinisch: Prediction and Analysis

At UFC 258, Kelvin Gastelum will be aiming to bounce back from a recent skid. This will be easier said than done as he takes on a dangerous adversary in Ian Heinisch. 

Heinisch is currently ranked 15th in the middleweight division, whereas Gastelum is ranked 9th. Gastelum had never lost more than one fight in his career prior to his current slump. However, he finds himself winless since April 2019 at the moment. 

Therefore, it will be extremely important to put his best foot forward and secure a win against Heinisch to get back on the road to a title shot in the not too distant future. 

The middleweight bout between the two men will be an extremely interesting one. Heading into the fight, we take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters and the possible route to victory for both men. 

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Kelvin Gastelum vs Ian Heinisch will be a middleweight delight at UFC 258

Gastelum made his UFC debut with a win over Uriah Hall in April 2013. During his first stint, Gastelum fought at 170-pounds. However, he has found much of his success since moving up to 185-pounds. Kelvin is on a three-fight skid at the moment with losses against the likes of Israel Adesanya, Jack Hermansson, and Darren Till. He will be aiming to get back into the win column this weekend. 

Heinisch made his debut on Dana White’s Contender Series In July 2018. Most recently Ian secured an impressive TKO win over Gerald Meerschaert in June 2020 bouncing back from a two-fight skid. He will be aiming to extend his win streak this weekend. 

Gastelum has secured 44% of his wins via T/KO. Despite being the shorter man, Gastelum will have only a 0.5-inch reach deficit over his rival. 

The former title contender has landed an impressive 3.86 significant strikes per minute and absorbed just 2.87 in return. Although Gastelum is not bad on the ground, his best weapon is his boxing therefore he will aim to keep the fight on the feet.

‘The Hurricane‘ has secured most of his win via decision (50%). He has landed an impressive 3.67 significant strikes per minute. However, he absorbs a concerning 3.02 significant strikes per minute and against a fighter like Gastelum that might spell trouble. Heinisch also averages 1.22 takedowns per 15 minutes, but it will be difficult to get Gastelum down as he has a takedown defense rate of 62%. 

If the fight is played out on the feet, Gastelum should be able to secure a win as he is the superior boxer. 

Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum via decision. 

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